I know that Oprah is off the air, but work with me a bit on the metaphor.
If you are a writer, you want to get on Oprah and your book will sell. If you are a CPG manufacturer, you need to get into Walmart or your product will have lackluster sales. Facebook hopes to be the next “Walmart” or “Oprah” platform. And in the process, the writer, the brand and now the marketer will lose autonomy over their product and service. They now serve at the pleasure of Oprah, Walmart or Facebook.
Oprah is now off the air. What venue do writers now aspire to be on? I don’t know. But I do know that Oprah probably does not much care. She needed to move on for herself. The writers need to figure out their own path.
Walmart will eventually slow down or stumble, taking the business model of a lot of CPG companies with it. The CPG companies will be stuck with a production system they can’t scale back easily and debt they can’t service. They will implode themselves out of business*. Walmart — like Oprah — will not care. It has to do what is best for Walmart.
And now Facebook is looking to “own” all the marketers’ funnel into their customers. Will the marketers march blindly and rabidly toward that cliff? Yes they will. And they will find themselves existing at the pleasure of Facebook. Oops.
But nobody saw that coming, right? Hmmmm.
Scale is everything in America. How many units are you shipping? What is your annual revenue? How many twitter followers do you have? How many copies of your book did you sell?
Nobody asks how good you are. They just want to know you make a lot of “X”
In our quest for chasing big we gladly and blithely hand over the wheel to someone who drives the car to their own destination, not ours.
*This has happened many times to many smaller companies. In order to supply Walmart, they need to ramp up production by leaps and bounds and their product better test well in the 90 days or Walmart pulls it and ships it back unpaid. One day you’ve got a contract for millions; the next you are on the streets and saddled with debt. Or rich. It can go either way quickly.